What changed, why it matters, and what most people may be overlooking.
Goldman Sachs joined the tightening camp and markets price an 87% chance of a quarter-point increase as oil above $100 and hotter producer prices revive inflation risk.
August payrolls nearly tripled the consensus estimate, pushing two-year yields to 4.37% and lifting the implied probability of a September rate increase to roughly 62% before inflation data.
The notable change is not simply the amount raised; it is that ten-year and longer money has become attractive to both issuers and long-horizon buyers.