What changed, why it matters, and what most people may be overlooking.
Goldman Sachs joined the tightening camp and markets price an 87% chance of a quarter-point increase as oil above $100 and hotter producer prices revive inflation risk.
August CPI accelerated, real wages fell again and markets priced an 87% chance of a quarter-point hike; the near-5% Treasury yield is tightening conditions before the Fed votes.
US spot Bitcoin funds posted their best daily inflow since January, led by BlackRock’s IBIT, before strong payrolls revived Fed-hike expectations and cooled Friday’s risk appetite.
August payrolls nearly tripled the consensus estimate, pushing two-year yields to 4.37% and lifting the implied probability of a September rate increase to roughly 62% before inflation data.